Phased Deal Plan Revealed: How US and Iran Could End 7-Month War by Reopening Hormuz

A senior Iranian official has suggested that a phased arrangement represents the most plausible solution to the current impasse. This official stated that the process of solving the crisis should occur in stages. The first step outlined in this potential framework would involve the end of the economic blockade and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This proposal implies a return to a temporary fix, following an earlier understanding that reportedly collapsed in July. Such a phased approach is viewed by some as a necessary mechanism to ensure that any concessions made by either side are durable enough to be trusted by both parties.

The timing of these negotiations is closely tied to the political calendar in the United States. Sources indicate that US President Donald Trump has expressed the view that a deal could be reached after the midterm elections scheduled for Congress on November 3. The political calculus suggests that a deal struck before the elections could provide Trump with several benefits. These benefits would include the potential to ease tensions in the Gulf region and the stabilization of oil prices. Furthermore, such a deal could contribute to bringing down politically sensitive gasoline prices within the United States. A senior European official noted that the Iranian delegation has a very long list of demands, which adds complexity to the timeline.

Former US negotiator Dennis Ross has provided an assessment of the probability of an agreement being reached before the vote. Ross rated the chance of a deal before the midterms at 30 percent. However, he also argued that both sides may have stronger incentives to make a deal before the elections than after them. The blockade is described by Ross as a mechanism that is currently squeezing the Iranian economy, with some describing it as strangling the nation's financial systems. A deal reached before the midterms would align with the potential for Trump to benefit politically from the resulting stability in the Gulf.

After the midterm elections, Ross suggested that Trump may face fewer political constraints. This could lead to a scenario where the President is more willing to either intensify pressure or consider military options. The economic reality for Iran is acute, as the US has tightened the economic vice on the nation. This tightening has involved layering new sanctions on top of an existing blockade that has effectively choked off Iran's oil exports. These exports represent a crucial source of hard currency for the government. This month, the US campaign expanded to target Iran's remaining commercial airlines and the support networks that sustain the powerful Revolutionary Guards.

Trump has utilized social media and public statements to apply pressure, warning that Iran's economy could rot unless a deal is reached. Despite these warnings, the analysis provided by former US negotiator Alan Eyre is that Iran is not primarily focused on imposing tolls in the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, the focus is on preserving administrative control of the waterway. The sources indicate that Iran may be willing to defer the toll issue, but they are unlikely to give up that administrative control. This distinction is crucial for understanding the Iranian position during the New York talks.

Regional sources have provided insight into the Iranian willingness to adjust its demands regarding transit fees. These sources report that Tehran is willing to drop the demand for payment of transit fees to use the Strait of Hormuz from the main agreement. Instead, the sources say, these demands would be placed in a side attachment. This flexibility is seen as an effort to prioritize the reopening of the strait, which has become an urgent priority for the negotiating team. However, Gulf states have reportedly rejected the proposal for payment of transit fees, adding another layer of complexity to the diplomatic equation.

Any arrangement discussed in New York is expected to be temporary in nature. The sources emphasize that this would not represent a formal abandonment of Iran’s position on the strait. Gulf leaders have sought clarity on Washington’s endgame beyond the midterms. In separate meetings with Trump in New York, these leaders conveyed their collective rejection of any Iranian control of Hormuz. They emphasized that freedom of navigation must be restored and that the strategic waterway should not become a tool of coercion against Gulf states.

The desire for de-escalation is shared by Gulf leaders, who have pressed hard for a political process. This reflects the region's determination to avoid further conflict between the US and Iran. Ebtessam al-Ketbi, president of the Emirates Policy Center based in Abu Dhabi, provided analysis on the strategic uncertainty. She noted it is still not clear what Trump’s endgame is, or what the alternative to the pressure campaign would be. The Iranians, in contrast, are described as knowing what they want. They are reshaping the regional landscape through Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb with a clear objective. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, is also mentioned as a strategic asset in this context.

Danny Citrinowicz, a regional analyst and former Israeli military intelligence officer, offered a perspective on the New York talks. He stated that the talks had not altered the basic positions of either side. The analysis suggests that Iran is unlikely to retreat as long as it believes Trump wants to avoid a wider escalation before the midterms. The blockade is causing significant pain for Iranians, but rather than softening their position, it may drive them to escalate because they believe that softening their position could be fatal to their interests. A Western official familiar with the talks provided a summary of the situation, stating that it is all about opening the Strait of Hormuz. The official added that everyone involved is under pressure domestically and that the Iranians are aware of this pressure.

First reported by The Algemeiner.