Housing Inventory and New Listings Reflect Seasonal and Rate-Driven Trends

New listings have been in a seasonal decline since June 2026, but the year has been the best for new listings since 2022. Last week’s new listing data for 2026 was 53,162, compared to 56,569 in 2025. The source mentions that during the housing bubble years, new listings ranged from 250,000 to 400,000 per week for several years, indicating a significant difference in market activity. [1]

The source notes that the typical price-cut percentage is about one-third of homes before they sell, but this year has seen a lower percentage until mortgage rates exceeded 6.64% and then 7%. The price-cut percentage for the last week in 2026 was 43%, compared to 42% in 2025. This increase is attributed to the impact of higher mortgage rates on demand and sales activity. [1]

Mortgage rates and the 10-year yield have been influenced by various economic factors, including hawkish Federal Reserve statements and hot inflation data. Last week, mortgage rates increased from 7.17% to 7.50%, reversing a previous trend toward lower rates. The 10-year yield fluctuated between 3.80% and 4.60% in the 2026 forecast, but recent data shows a rise in the yield to 5.14%. [1]

Mortgage spreads have shown recent deterioration but improved slightly last week, falling from 2.27% to 2.13%. The source highlights that historically, mortgage spreads have ranged from 1.60% to 1.80%, and the current levels indicate a deviation from this norm. The impact of mortgage spreads on rates is significant, with the best spread levels in 2026 leading to a projected rate of 7.19% instead of the actual 7.50%. [1]

Housing inventory has shown recent growth despite mortgage rates exceeding 6.64% and reaching 7.60%, according to HousingWire. This growth is attributed to the seasonal decline in inventory becoming more pronounced, even as demand stabilizes. The weekly housing demand has continued to stabilize over the last four weeks, with new listing data not showing signs of stress in the housing market (HousingWire). [1]

New listings have been in a seasonal decline since June, but 2026 has seen the best year of new listings since 2022. Despite concerns that higher rates might reduce the number of homes being listed, the data shows that the year has been relatively healthy for new listings, with only a minor year-over-year decline observed recently (HousingWire). [1]

Price-cut percentages have been lower than last year until rates moved above 6.64% and then above 7%, at which point the year-over-year price-cut percentage rose by 1%. This indicates that higher mortgage rates have started to influence seller behavior, leading to an increase in the proportion of homes that require price reductions before they sell (HousingWire). [1]

Housing inventory has shown recent growth despite mortgage rates exceeding 6.64% and reaching 7.60%, according to HousingWire. Inventory growth had been very tame this year, with some weeks showing negative year-over-year changes. However, as rates moved toward 7.60%, inventory growth increased, reaching 7.11% over last year even with easier comparisons, as last year's demand was at a 9-month high in December 2025 (source ID: 1). [1]

New listings have been in their seasonal decline since June, but 2026 has seen the best year of new listings since 2022. Despite concerns that higher rates might reduce the number of homes being listed, this has not been the case. In fact, new listings data has remained relatively stable, with a more noticeable year-over-year decline observed only in the most recent week (source ID: 1). [1]

Price-cut percentages typically reflect the dynamic nature of the housing market, with about one-third of homes seeing price reductions before they sell. This year, price-cut percentages have been lower than last year until rates moved above 6.64% and then above 7%, at which point the year-over-year price-cut percentage rose by 1%. This indicates that higher rates are beginning to impact demand and seller behavior (source ID: 1). [1]

Sources

HousingWire

Prepared with AI assistance from the cited sources.