Europe Gas Prices JUMP 1.6% as Trump Threatens Iran and Storage Levels Hit Record Lows

European and British wholesale natural gas futures rebounded on Thursday, rising 1.6 percent each as fading hopes for a swift diplomatic resolution to the U.S.Iran conflict re-ignited risk premia across global energy bourses. The benchmark Dutch front-month TTF contract rose to trade at 74.50 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh). The contract experienced a rebound from its lowest level in nearly three weeks touched recently. In Great Britain, the equivalent NBP wholesale gas contract matched the continental advance, climbing to 185.85 pence per therm. This increase occurred as traders priced in lingering risks to liquefied natural gas (LNG) transit routes.

Market optimism initially sparked by prospective U.S.Iran talks evaporated after U.S. President Donald Trump used his UN speech to call Iran a regional “bully” and floated the possibility of “annihilating” the Islamic Republic if hostilities escalated. In response, Iran’s military leadership and President Masoud Pezeshkian forcefully dismissed the threats. The Revolutionary Guard warned that Tehran stands ready to deliver “crushing” counter-strikes and vowed never to surrender under naval blockades. This widening diplomatic impasse has crushed earlier expectations that a quick peace deal could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Such an event is critical for energy flows. A failure here threatens prolonged delays for Qatari and Persian Gulf LNG cargoes bound for European import terminals. link

Compounding the geopolitical friction, physical supply fundamentals across continental storage caverns continue to keep a firm floor under winter energy curves. Data from Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) showed underground gas storage across the European Union last recorded at 70 percent of capacity. While inventory injections continue, current fill levels remain approximately 12 percentage points lower year-on-year compared to the same period in 2025. This data offers a clear picture of the region's vulnerability. link