US forces disable two Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz blockade enforcement

U.S. Central Command released video this week of American forces disabling two Iranian-flagged tankers, M/T Sea Star III and M/T Sevda, as they attempted to run the naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. The action follows the disabling of M/T Hasna on May 6 and underscores that the April 2026 blockade, which bars transit to Iranian ports while allowing it for others, remains firmly in place despite a recent ceasefire.

Prediction markets have taken notice. The probability of 20 ships transiting the strait by May 31 sits at 67 percent, down from 76 percent twenty-four hours earlier. The chance that traffic returns to normal by May 15 has fallen to 1.8 percent. Most tellingly, the market on Trump’s Hormuz blockade announcement being lifted by May 31 now prices at 39 percent, reflecting reduced expectations that enforcement will ease.

The pattern is clear: continued U.S. enforcement is working against any near-term relaxation. CENTCOM’s latest move reinforces the blockade’s original logic—preventing Iranian oil exports while keeping the strait open for non-Iranian traffic. Markets interpret each disabled vessel as evidence that Washington intends to maintain strict control, not negotiate it away.

Diplomatic noise about a ceasefire has so far failed to translate into relaxed maritime rules. The blockade’s persistence, now backed by repeated kinetic actions, suggests the Trump administration views Hormuz not as a bargaining chip but as leverage that must be held. Observers waiting for normalization by May 15 or a formal lift by month’s end are watching probabilities collapse in real time.

What remains is a narrowing window. By May 31 the market will either validate sustained American resolve or reveal that enforcement was always temporary theater. The disabled tankers and falling odds point toward the former.

Original reporting: Crypto Briefing.