U.S. expects Iranian response to peace proposal on Friday, fighting flares in Gulf

The U.S. and Iran traded fire in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday even as Washington awaited Tehran’s answer to a peace proposal meant to lock in a ceasefire before tackling nuclear issues. A CIA assessment shared with The Washington Post concluded that a naval blockade would not inflict severe economic pain on Iran for about four months, a timeline that undercuts claims of immediate pressure.

A senior intelligence official pushed back, insisting the blockade “is inflicting real, compounding damage—severing trade, crushing revenue, and accelerating systemic economic collapse.” Yet the very existence of the four-month buffer, according to a U.S. official familiar with the matter, suggests Tehran retains breathing room while the conflict remains deeply unpopular with American voters.

Fighting flared after the ceasefire announced on April 7. Iran largely blocked non-Iranian shipping through the strait, which once carried one-fifth of global oil. The U.S. struck two Iran-linked vessels attempting to enter an Iranian port, using a fighter jet to hit their smokestacks and force them back. Sporadic clashes continued, though Iranian outlets later described the situation as calmed while warning of possible renewed action.

The violence spread. The United Arab Emirates reported its air defenses intercepted two ballistic missiles and three drones from Iran, injuring three people with moderate wounds. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi called the U.S. moves “a reckless military adventure” every time diplomacy nears. Tehran accused Washington of breaching the truce; one Iranian commercial ship suffered one crew member killed, ten wounded and four missing after a U.S. Navy attack late Thursday.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters in Rome, “We should know something today. We’re expecting a response from them.” He later questioned European allies, asking whether they would “normalize a country claiming to control an international waterway” and set a precedent repeated elsewhere. The U.S. Treasury simultaneously sanctioned ten individuals and companies, several in China and Hong Kong, for supplying parts for Iran’s Shahed drones.

Brent crude futures climbed above $101 a barrel. President Trump insisted Thursday that the ceasefire still held despite the flare-ups. The contradiction is stark: American diplomacy proceeds alongside sanctions and naval enforcement, yet the intelligence community’s own timeline reveals how little leverage exists to force a quick end.

Original reporting: Japan Today.