Tehran could withstand blockade for four months, CIA report shows, as fighting flares

Iran can absorb a US naval blockade for another four months before feeling crippling economic pain, according to a CIA assessment that undercuts Washington’s position as diplomats scramble for an exit from a war few Americans wanted.

The intelligence finding, first reported by The Washington Post and confirmed by a US official, lands as sporadic clashes flare again in the Strait of Hormuz. On May 8, Iranian forces and US vessels traded fire, the US military struck two Iran-linked boats attempting to enter port, and Tehran launched ballistic missiles and drones at the United Arab Emirates, injuring three people. Oil briefly spiked above $101 a barrel.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters in Rome that a US proposal to formally end hostilities before tackling Iran’s nuclear program should receive an answer “today.” Iran’s foreign ministry said it was still weighing its response. Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi accused Washington of choosing “reckless military adventure” every time diplomacy nears fruition and blamed the US for breaching a ceasefire announced on April 7.

The confrontation has already reshaped global energy flows. Before the war began with joint US-Israeli strikes on February 28, the strait carried one-fifth of the world’s oil. Iran has largely blocked non-Iranian shipping since then; the US imposed its own blockade last month. President Trump paused “Project Freedom,” his short-lived plan to escort vessels, after 48 hours, yet Rubio pressed European allies: “Are you going to normalise a country claiming to control an international waterway?”

While talking peace, the Treasury slapped sanctions on 10 individuals and companies, several in China and Hong Kong, for supplying parts to build Tehran’s Shahed drones. Officials warned of secondary sanctions on foreign banks and “teapot” refineries that keep Iranian oil flowing. The measures arrive days before Trump meets Xi Jinping.

The CIA’s four-month timeline reveals a stubborn reality: Tehran retains breathing room even after months of airstrikes, drone exchanges, and a tanker war. That clock is now ticking in public, forcing Washington to decide whether to tighten the noose or accept a deal that leaves Iran’s nuclear ambitions and regional reach largely intact.

Original reporting: CNA.