Southeast Asian Leaders Tackle Iran War Vulnerabilities

Southeast Asian leaders ditched the usual summit pomp for a stripped-down crisis session because the Iran war has exposed just how fragile their economies remain. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. hosted the bare-bones ASEAN gathering and warned that even if tensions ease, "the damage to critical infrastructure, to vital systems and trust in general, will continue to be felt for years to come." The region is reeling from rising fuel costs and the risk that conflict in the Strait of Hormuz could replicate itself in the South China Sea, where Marcos said the consequences "would be alarming just to even think about."

In response, the 11-member bloc agreed to fast-track ratification of a 2009 emergency fuel-sharing pact that has never been enforced. The plan envisions a regional power grid and fuel stockpile, alongside diversification of crude sources, greater use of electric vehicles, green technologies, and civilian nuclear research. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto urged a "clear forward-looking approach," while the group also pledged a new monitoring center for illegal fishing, smuggling, and human trafficking to safeguard disputed waters.

Yet the measures carry an unmistakable air of too little, too late. Marcos himself stressed that establishing the grid and stockpile "will likely take a long time," even as members declared themselves "committed to making this succeed because everyone is suffering." The summit also highlighted the challenge of evacuating more than one million Southeast Asian citizens working in the Middle East, prompting a joint declaration on better information-sharing with international organizations to protect those nationals.

Beneath the proactive language lies raw doubt. Several members argued that real security remains impossible without a U.S.-Iran peace deal. Marcos captured the skepticism bluntly: "Until the fighting ends, until the bombings end, then it is very difficult to put together any kind of solution." That admission undercuts the flurry of contingency planning, revealing ASEAN's dependence on distant powers to stop the very shocks now forcing emergency summits.

The timing is especially unforgiving. U.S. forces had just fired on two Iran-flagged tankers attempting to breach a naval blockade, while the White House awaited Tehran's reply to a proposal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump insisted a cease-fire remained in effect despite fresh strikes, and the UAE accused Iran of fresh missile and drone attacks that wounded three people. ASEAN's leaders are building lifeboats while the storm is still raging.

What happens when another Hormuz-style disruption hits the South China Sea before the power grid or fuel stockpile exists? The bloc's own words suggest the answer is more suffering and more belated vows to cooperate. The question ASEAN has yet to answer is whether its members will ratify and operationalize the 2009 pact before the next external shock arrives.

Original reporting: Foreign Policy.