Iran makes Strait of Hormuz passage restrictions permanent amid US tensions

Iran has turned temporary limits on the Strait of Hormuz into permanent policy, according to Tasnim News Agency, responding to a joint U.S.-Israel military attack earlier this year. The narrow waterway carries a huge share of global oil; codifying restrictions gives Tehran lasting leverage even after a fragile ceasefire.

The move has already stranded roughly 2,000 ships. That visible paralysis is now baked into three prediction markets tracked by Crypto Briefing. The contract asking whether traffic returns to normal by May 15 trades at 2.5% Yes, down from 4% a week ago. Traders have also slashed the odds that Donald Trump announces the U.S. blockade lifted by May 31, now sitting at 40%.

Even the bet that 20 ships will transit the strait on any single day by May 31 has fallen to 68% Yes. Market analysts called the Iranian announcement “high impact” on the normalization contract and only “moderate” on the Trump-blockade contract, yet every price moved in the same direction: toward prolonged disruption.

Diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran remain stalled. The International Maritime Organization has stayed quiet so far. Iranian state media frames the permanent rules as necessary self-defense; U.S. officials have offered no immediate counter-statement on lifting their own measures.

What looked like a temporary wartime squeeze has become structural. Tehran clearly intends to keep the strait contested long after the shooting stopped. The only question left is how many more billions in delayed oil and stranded hulls it will take before someone blinks.

Original reporting: Crypto Briefing.